The definition of hot money The hot money, also known as Refugee Capital or speculative short -term capital, just short -term speculative funds that quickly flow in the international financial market for the pursuit of the highest risk. The speculative movement of short -term funds in the world is mainly to evade political risks, pursue changes in exchange rates, changes in the price of important commodities or changes in the price of international securities, and hot money is a speculative behavior that pursues exchange rate changes. When speculators expect a certain currency price to fall, they will sell the long -term foreign exchange of this currency, so that after the expiration of future expirations, the interests that can be bought at a lower period of time to earn this exchange difference. Because this is purely short -selling speculation, it is different from the set of exchange. In the foreign exchange market, because such speculative funds often have their own devaluation tendency to transform the currency to currency with appreciation currency, which increases the instability of the foreign exchange market. Wise or implement foreign exchange control can prevent the flow of speculative funds. The identification of hot money and determination of the number of numbers although it can be said that it can be said, how to identify hot money and determine the number of hot money, but it is not easy. Because hot money is not static, some long -term capital can also be converted into short -term capital under certain circumstances, and short -term capital can be converted into hot money. The key is whether the economic and financial environment will cause funds to move from investment to speculative and from speculative to flee. The current fixed exchange rate system in my country and the external financial environment of the continued depreciation of the US dollar has created a arbitrage opportunity for hot money to enter and exit. The first is the false prosperity of hot money in the economy. Judging from the current situation in my country, while the hot money is expected to be appreciated by the RMB, the opportunity to continue to find arbitrage opportunities such as the real estate market, the bond market, the stock market, and other markets in other markets. The most obvious is the real estate market. In the past two years, my country's real estate prices have risen straight, and the national real estate prices have risen above 12%, far exceeding the consumer price index, especially in Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other large cities, real estate prices have risen by more than 20%, and even even Reach 50%. Even though the severe macro regulation in 2004 did not suppress the sharp rise in house prices. Therefore, some arbitrage capital cannot be ruled out in my country's real estate market. One of the important reasons why many real estate developers are unwilling to reduce prices and house prices is that they have fantasies about international hot money, and an important reason to attract international hot money to enter the Chinese property market is the significant appreciation of the RMB. It's entry into a large number of hot money, increase the scale of foreign exchange funds, affect the normal operation of monetary policy, disrupt the normal operation of the financial system, and exacerbate the pressure of domestic inflation. In 2004, the basis of basic currencies reached more than 660 billion yuan. According to the calculation of about 100 billion US dollars of hot money, there were more than 800 billion yuan. Therefore, the inflow of the hot money exceeded the annual basic currency investment. This forced the central bank to use the central bank's bills to forcibly sell it in the open market. In 2004 alone, the central bank issued nearly 1.5 trillion yuan of bills, which greatly increased the operating costs of the central bank. The effect is greatly reduced, increasing the pressure of inflation. In relevant experts, as of the end of 2005, the "hot money" in my country exceeded US $ 320 billion, and at the end of 2006 and at the end of 2007, it was $ 400 billion and $ 500 billion, respectively. On June 24, 2008, experts of the Institute of World Political and Economic Research, the Academy of Social Sciences published a report on the website of the Social Sciences that under the hypothesis of a certain economic model, the amount of hot money in China's capital market was amazing, which was as high as 1.75 trillion yuan The US dollar, this number is about 104%of the Chinese foreign exchange reserve stock as of the end of March 2008. The inflow of "hot money" to China is driven by various factors: it can not only achieve the risk of international financial turmoil, but also benefit the RMB set of foreign exchange, and speculate on the domestic stock market and property market. " Artificially increased the pressure of RMB to appreciate. The current exchange rate system in China and the continued depreciation of the US dollar can attract hot money. Therefore, as long as the RMB appreciation is expected, the pressure of the RMB appreciation will be . In the end, the outflow of hot money will also make the economy violently. With the 7 hikes of the Federal Reserve, the US dollar interest rate increases the attraction of the dollar, and the expected uncertainty of the appreciation of the renminbi increases. The market price of some speculative atmosphere will fluctuate sharply, such as the rapid decline in real estate prices, bond prices, and sharp fluctuations in the stock market. . For a long time, developing countries have often flowed out of accidents due to the shortage of domestic funds. I hope that foreign exchange flows. Thailand pursues high interest rate policies by 1997, and a large number of "hot money" poured in; after the depreciation of the Thai baht, the "hot money" escaped quickly, causing the Thai economic building to collapse. When will the hot money flow into China? General international hot money flows to two heat sources: 1. Short -term interest rates are at the height of the band, or they are still rising. Appreciation. It as long as China meets the above two conditions, hot money flows in. generally developing in developing countries, the economy is taking off, and the market is growing. The above requirements can attract the hot money in Bayang. The hot money and the most loyalty at all. They will always stay in the country relative to other countries: 2. During the short period of time, the exchange rate is going to derogate The hot money will flow out again. The so -called hot money flowing out is to sell their currency valuation assets, such as stocks, national debt, speculative land, etc. , After replacing the currency of other countries, the nest is exported. In the above and one step out. If the time is short and the traffic is large, it will cause the housing market in the country's stock market and bond market. Also! The current fixed exchange rate system in China and the external financial environment of the continued depreciation of the US dollar has created a arbitrage opportunity for hot money in and out. The system standard can also make it feel at ease in China. As long as it feels favorable and does not need to bump to the world, the hot money is not all hidden. There are more than ten types of hot money entering the channel, and the main channels are: The first, false trade. In this channel, domestic enterprises and foreign investors can join forces to pass the virtual high quotation, pre -collection of payment, and forge the supply of supply. Contract and other methods, introduce overseas funds. Second, increase capital and shareholding. On the basis of the original registration funds, existing foreign -invested companies apply for capital increases on the grounds of "expanding production scale" and "increasing investment projects". After the funds come in It is necessary to find an excuse to withdraw the original project contract, so it is easy to enter and exit with hot money. The third, currency circulation and conversion. There is a section of the market in the market to explain the way of flowing in this hot money: "Hong Kong dollars cannot be convertible, the renminbi can be exchanged, and the two places are first -class and can be exchanged." In the inspection, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange found that through this method of currency conversion and cross -regional operations, it also made a lot of hot money "in and out of freely." It four, underground money house. Underground Qianzhuang is the fastest way to enter and exit foreign investment. Many underground money houses are operating like this: Suppose you hit the money to a specified account in the local area in Hong Kong or outside somewhere. After being confirmed, the underground bank in the Mainland will naturally help you open a household and convert your foreign currency to Renminbi. There is no need to come in at all. The five, container car clip cash. This approach is mainly concentrated in the ingredients processing enterprise in the Pearl River Delta. In the name of employee salary, the enterprise will bring Hong Kong dollars in and out of Guangdong and Hong Kong through the container truck. If there are a lot of eight container trucks in an enterprise, it is common for a car to run for one or two times. Each trip is 500,000 Hong Kong dollars, even if it is investigated by the customs. Since 2006, as the demand for funds has increased, some similar companies have slowly expanded their business to become a "underground money house" in disguise, and help others with cash in large quantities. The six, family money. Overseas Chinese remittances to domestic relatives are called albums, and this number has increased significantly in recent years. The money that is really used in the "family" here is suspicious. Quite a lot of hot money is to come in and buy a house through this channel. The characteristics of hot money The hot money has the following "four highs" features: 1. High returns and risk. Pursuing high returns is the ultimate goal of hot money in the global financial market movement. Of course, high income is often accompanied by high risk, so hot money earns high risk profits. They may earn in this market and lose money at this time, or at this time, and at this time, this also makes it bear high risk Consciousness and ability. 2. High information and sensitivity. Hot money is the darling of the information era. It is highly sensitive to the current situation and trend of one country or the world's economic and financial situation, the difference between the spread, spread and various price differences in various financial markets, and various price differences, and can quickly reflect it. 3. High liquidity and short -term. Based on high information and high sensitivity, if you have money, you can quickly enter, and the risk is increasing instantly. Expressing great short -term, even ultra -short -term, quickly enter and exit within one or one week. 4. The high virtuality and speculation of investment. Saying hot money is an investment fund, which mainly refers to the price securities market and the currency market that they invest in the world in order to obtain profits from the daily, hour, and minute price fluctuations of securities and currencies, that is, "giving money with money" It has a certain lubrication effect on the financial market. If the financial market does not have hot money such as those with hot money, it is impossible for risk hate to transfer risks. However, the investment of hot money does not create employment nor provides services, and has great virtuality, speculation and destructiveness. In how to respond to the inflow of a large amount of hot money For China, we should first strengthen the management and supervision of capital inflows, especially short -term speculative capital; To make capital flow sustainable, which is also the most fundamental factor to prevent capital flow reversal; in addition, it is also necessary to maintain a certain flexibility for exchange rate arrangements. The method of resisting foreign hot money in theory 1. Comprehensive inflation to make the price rising comprehensively, but the people cannot afford it; . Increasing the reserve rate, but this trick has limited impact on the Chinese stock market limited ; 3. Find another place to split floods and floods, such as making the real estate market excited again, but citizens cannot stand it; . The pace of accelerating the appreciation of the renminbi, quickly in place, announced within a few years, announced within a few years It is not appreciated, but foreign trade companies will go bankrupt in large quantities, and unemployment problems cannot be solved; 5. Expand the securities market in my country. The measures adopted include encouraging high -quality state -owned enterprises on the market to organize and publicize, or accelerate the return of red -chip stocks, as well as allowing foreign companies to issue A shares.
Pay content for time limit to check for freenAnswer Hot Money, also known as a refugee capital, refers to a mobile fund seeking short -term returns. These funds flow is extremely fast. Once investors (usually institutional investors) seek short -term investment opportunities, hot money will pour in, and once investors get expected profitability or find investment opportunities, these capitals will quickly flow away again Essence The formation of hot money is due to the globalization of the financial market and the rapid expansion of international investment funds. Main features: first, high yield and risk. Pursuing high returns is the ultimate goal of hot money in the global financial market movement. Of course, high income is often accompanied by high risk, so hot money earns high risk profits. They may earn in this market and lose money at this time, or at this time, and at this time, this also makes it bear high risk Consciousness and ability. Second, high information and sensitivity. Hot money is the darling of the information era. It is highly sensitive to the current situation and trend of economic and financial in one country, one region or the world, or the differences in various financial markets, spreads, and various prices. Reflect. Third, high liquidity and short -term. Based on high information and high sensitivity, if you have money, you can quickly enter, and the risk is increasing instantly. Expressing great short -term, even ultra -short -term, quickly enter and exit within one or one week. Fourth, high virtuality and speculation of investment. It is said that hot money is an investment fund, which mainly refers to the securities market and the currency market that they invest in the world in order to obtain profits from the price fluctuations of securities and currencies, that is, "giving money with money", which has a certain lubrication to the financial market. effect. If the financial market does not have hot money such as those with hot money, it is impossible for risk hate to transfer risks. However, the investment of hot money does not create employment nor provides services, and has great virtuality, speculation and destructiveness. The net inflow of hot money refers to the net inflow of international capital, that is, the difference between international tourism flows into domestic and domestic capital flows abroad. Hot money has a lot of impact on the life of ordinary people. Especially after the flow of hot money flows, the amount of currency in the domestic market increases; at the same time, hot money stays in the country. By speculating in large agricultural products, our domestic prices have also increased accordingly, which will increase the pressure of domestic inflation, and hot money will flow in. The real estate market, which has high housing prices in China and regulating house prices in the government, is an unfavorable force. It can be said that it is one of the reasons for promoting the rise in prices. It is a great harm to the people's livelihood.nIt is not easy to identify hot money and determine the amount of hot money, because the nature of hot money is not unchanged. Some long -term capital can also be converted into short -term capital under certain circumstances. Short -term capital can be converted into hot money. The key is whether the economic and financial environment will lead to capital. From investment to speculation, from speculation to escape. China's current fixed exchange rate system and the continuous depreciation of the external financial environment of the US dollar have created a arbitrage opportunity for hot money to enter and exit. The inflow of "hot money" to China is driven by various factors: it can avoid both the risk of international financial turmoil, the RMB set of foreign exchange, and the Chinese stock market and property market
The definition of hot money
The hot money, also known as Refugee Capital or speculative short -term capital, just short -term speculative funds that quickly flow in the international financial market for the pursuit of the highest risk. The speculative movement of short -term funds in the world is mainly to evade political risks, pursue changes in exchange rates, changes in the price of important commodities or changes in the price of international securities, and hot money is a speculative behavior that pursues exchange rate changes. When speculators expect a certain currency price to fall, they will sell the long -term foreign exchange of this currency, so that after the expiration of future expirations, the interests that can be bought at a lower period of time to earn this exchange difference. Because this is purely short -selling speculation, it is different from the set of exchange. In the foreign exchange market, because such speculative funds often have their own devaluation tendency to transform the currency to currency with appreciation currency, which increases the instability of the foreign exchange market. Wise or implement foreign exchange control can prevent the flow of speculative funds.
The identification of hot money and determination of the number of numbers
although it can be said that it can be said, how to identify hot money and determine the number of hot money, but it is not easy. Because hot money is not static, some long -term capital can also be converted into short -term capital under certain circumstances, and short -term capital can be converted into hot money. The key is whether the economic and financial environment will cause funds to move from investment to speculative and from speculative to flee. The current fixed exchange rate system in my country and the external financial environment of the continued depreciation of the US dollar has created a arbitrage opportunity for hot money to enter and exit.
The first is the false prosperity of hot money in the economy. Judging from the current situation in my country, while the hot money is expected to be appreciated by the RMB, the opportunity to continue to find arbitrage opportunities such as the real estate market, the bond market, the stock market, and other markets in other markets. The most obvious is the real estate market. In the past two years, my country's real estate prices have risen straight, and the national real estate prices have risen above 12%, far exceeding the consumer price index, especially in Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing and other large cities, real estate prices have risen by more than 20%, and even even Reach 50%. Even though the severe macro regulation in 2004 did not suppress the sharp rise in house prices. Therefore, some arbitrage capital cannot be ruled out in my country's real estate market. One of the important reasons why many real estate developers are unwilling to reduce prices and house prices is that they have fantasies about international hot money, and an important reason to attract international hot money to enter the Chinese property market is the significant appreciation of the RMB.
It's entry into a large number of hot money, increase the scale of foreign exchange funds, affect the normal operation of monetary policy, disrupt the normal operation of the financial system, and exacerbate the pressure of domestic inflation. In 2004, the basis of basic currencies reached more than 660 billion yuan. According to the calculation of about 100 billion US dollars of hot money, there were more than 800 billion yuan. Therefore, the inflow of the hot money exceeded the annual basic currency investment. This forced the central bank to use the central bank's bills to forcibly sell it in the open market. In 2004 alone, the central bank issued nearly 1.5 trillion yuan of bills, which greatly increased the operating costs of the central bank. The effect is greatly reduced, increasing the pressure of inflation.
In relevant experts, as of the end of 2005, the "hot money" in my country exceeded US $ 320 billion, and at the end of 2006 and at the end of 2007, it was $ 400 billion and $ 500 billion, respectively. On June 24, 2008, experts of the Institute of World Political and Economic Research, the Academy of Social Sciences published a report on the website of the Social Sciences that under the hypothesis of a certain economic model, the amount of hot money in China's capital market was amazing, which was as high as 1.75 trillion yuan The US dollar, this number is about 104%of the Chinese foreign exchange reserve stock as of the end of March 2008. The inflow of "hot money" to China is driven by various factors: it can not only achieve the risk of international financial turmoil, but also benefit the RMB set of foreign exchange, and speculate on the domestic stock market and property market. " Artificially increased the pressure of RMB to appreciate. The current exchange rate system in China and the continued depreciation of the US dollar can attract hot money. Therefore, as long as the RMB appreciation is expected, the pressure of the RMB appreciation will be . In the end, the outflow of hot money will also make the economy violently. With the 7 hikes of the Federal Reserve, the US dollar interest rate increases the attraction of the dollar, and the expected uncertainty of the appreciation of the renminbi increases. The market price of some speculative atmosphere will fluctuate sharply, such as the rapid decline in real estate prices, bond prices, and sharp fluctuations in the stock market.
. For a long time, developing countries have often flowed out of accidents due to the shortage of domestic funds. I hope that foreign exchange flows. Thailand pursues high interest rate policies by 1997, and a large number of "hot money" poured in; after the depreciation of the Thai baht, the "hot money" escaped quickly, causing the Thai economic building to collapse. When will the hot money flow into China?
General international hot money flows to two heat sources:
1. Short -term interest rates are at the height of the band, or they are still rising. Appreciation.
It as long as China meets the above two conditions, hot money flows in.
generally developing in developing countries, the economy is taking off, and the market is growing. The above requirements can attract the hot money in Bayang.
The hot money and the most loyalty at all. They will always stay in the country relative to other countries:
2. During the short period of time, the exchange rate is going to derogate
The hot money will flow out again.
The so -called hot money flowing out is to sell their currency valuation assets, such as stocks, national debt, speculative land, etc. , After replacing the currency of other countries, the nest is exported.
In the above and one step out. If the time is short and the traffic is large, it will cause the housing market in the country's stock market and bond market. Also!
The current fixed exchange rate system in China and the external financial environment of the continued depreciation of the US dollar has created a arbitrage opportunity for hot money in and out.
The system standard can also make it feel at ease in China. As long as it feels favorable and does not need to bump to the world, the hot money is not all hidden. There are more than ten types of hot money entering the channel, and the main channels are:
The first, false trade. In this channel, domestic enterprises and foreign investors can join forces to pass the virtual high quotation, pre -collection of payment, and forge the supply of supply. Contract and other methods, introduce overseas funds.
Second, increase capital and shareholding. On the basis of the original registration funds, existing foreign -invested companies apply for capital increases on the grounds of "expanding production scale" and "increasing investment projects". After the funds come in It is necessary to find an excuse to withdraw the original project contract, so it is easy to enter and exit with hot money.
The third, currency circulation and conversion. There is a section of the market in the market to explain the way of flowing in this hot money: "Hong Kong dollars cannot be convertible, the renminbi can be exchanged, and the two places are first -class and can be exchanged." In the inspection, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange found that through this method of currency conversion and cross -regional operations, it also made a lot of hot money "in and out of freely."
It four, underground money house. Underground Qianzhuang is the fastest way to enter and exit foreign investment. Many underground money houses are operating like this: Suppose you hit the money to a specified account in the local area in Hong Kong or outside somewhere. After being confirmed, the underground bank in the Mainland will naturally help you open a household and convert your foreign currency to Renminbi. There is no need to come in at all.
The five, container car clip cash. This approach is mainly concentrated in the ingredients processing enterprise in the Pearl River Delta. In the name of employee salary, the enterprise will bring Hong Kong dollars in and out of Guangdong and Hong Kong through the container truck. If there are a lot of eight container trucks in an enterprise, it is common for a car to run for one or two times. Each trip is 500,000 Hong Kong dollars, even if it is investigated by the customs. Since 2006, as the demand for funds has increased, some similar companies have slowly expanded their business to become a "underground money house" in disguise, and help others with cash in large quantities.
The six, family money. Overseas Chinese remittances to domestic relatives are called albums, and this number has increased significantly in recent years. The money that is really used in the "family" here is suspicious. Quite a lot of hot money is to come in and buy a house through this channel.
The characteristics of hot money
The hot money has the following "four highs" features:
1. High returns and risk. Pursuing high returns is the ultimate goal of hot money in the global financial market movement. Of course, high income is often accompanied by high risk, so hot money earns high risk profits. They may earn in this market and lose money at this time, or at this time, and at this time, this also makes it bear high risk Consciousness and ability.
2. High information and sensitivity. Hot money is the darling of the information era. It is highly sensitive to the current situation and trend of one country or the world's economic and financial situation, the difference between the spread, spread and various price differences in various financial markets, and various price differences, and can quickly reflect it.
3. High liquidity and short -term. Based on high information and high sensitivity, if you have money, you can quickly enter, and the risk is increasing instantly. Expressing great short -term, even ultra -short -term, quickly enter and exit within one or one week.
4. The high virtuality and speculation of investment. Saying hot money is an investment fund, which mainly refers to the price securities market and the currency market that they invest in the world in order to obtain profits from the daily, hour, and minute price fluctuations of securities and currencies, that is, "giving money with money" It has a certain lubrication effect on the financial market. If the financial market does not have hot money such as those with hot money, it is impossible for risk hate to transfer risks. However, the investment of hot money does not create employment nor provides services, and has great virtuality, speculation and destructiveness.
In how to respond to the inflow of a large amount of hot money
For China, we should first strengthen the management and supervision of capital inflows, especially short -term speculative capital; To make capital flow sustainable, which is also the most fundamental factor to prevent capital flow reversal; in addition, it is also necessary to maintain a certain flexibility for exchange rate arrangements.
The method of resisting foreign hot money in theory
1. Comprehensive inflation to make the price rising comprehensively, but the people cannot afford it;
. Increasing the reserve rate, but this trick has limited impact on the Chinese stock market limited ;
3. Find another place to split floods and floods, such as making the real estate market excited again, but citizens cannot stand it;
. The pace of accelerating the appreciation of the renminbi, quickly in place, announced within a few years, announced within a few years It is not appreciated, but foreign trade companies will go bankrupt in large quantities, and unemployment problems cannot be solved;
5. Expand the securities market in my country. The measures adopted include encouraging high -quality state -owned enterprises on the market to organize and publicize, or accelerate the return of red -chip stocks, as well as allowing foreign companies to issue A shares.
Pay content for time limit to check for freenAnswer Hot Money, also known as a refugee capital, refers to a mobile fund seeking short -term returns. These funds flow is extremely fast. Once investors (usually institutional investors) seek short -term investment opportunities, hot money will pour in, and once investors get expected profitability or find investment opportunities, these capitals will quickly flow away again Essence The formation of hot money is due to the globalization of the financial market and the rapid expansion of international investment funds. Main features: first, high yield and risk. Pursuing high returns is the ultimate goal of hot money in the global financial market movement. Of course, high income is often accompanied by high risk, so hot money earns high risk profits. They may earn in this market and lose money at this time, or at this time, and at this time, this also makes it bear high risk Consciousness and ability. Second, high information and sensitivity. Hot money is the darling of the information era. It is highly sensitive to the current situation and trend of economic and financial in one country, one region or the world, or the differences in various financial markets, spreads, and various prices. Reflect. Third, high liquidity and short -term. Based on high information and high sensitivity, if you have money, you can quickly enter, and the risk is increasing instantly. Expressing great short -term, even ultra -short -term, quickly enter and exit within one or one week. Fourth, high virtuality and speculation of investment. It is said that hot money is an investment fund, which mainly refers to the securities market and the currency market that they invest in the world in order to obtain profits from the price fluctuations of securities and currencies, that is, "giving money with money", which has a certain lubrication to the financial market. effect. If the financial market does not have hot money such as those with hot money, it is impossible for risk hate to transfer risks. However, the investment of hot money does not create employment nor provides services, and has great virtuality, speculation and destructiveness. The net inflow of hot money refers to the net inflow of international capital, that is, the difference between international tourism flows into domestic and domestic capital flows abroad. Hot money has a lot of impact on the life of ordinary people. Especially after the flow of hot money flows, the amount of currency in the domestic market increases; at the same time, hot money stays in the country. By speculating in large agricultural products, our domestic prices have also increased accordingly, which will increase the pressure of domestic inflation, and hot money will flow in. The real estate market, which has high housing prices in China and regulating house prices in the government, is an unfavorable force. It can be said that it is one of the reasons for promoting the rise in prices. It is a great harm to the people's livelihood.nIt is not easy to identify hot money and determine the amount of hot money, because the nature of hot money is not unchanged. Some long -term capital can also be converted into short -term capital under certain circumstances. Short -term capital can be converted into hot money. The key is whether the economic and financial environment will lead to capital. From investment to speculation, from speculation to escape. China's current fixed exchange rate system and the continuous depreciation of the external financial environment of the US dollar have created a arbitrage opportunity for hot money to enter and exit. The inflow of "hot money" to China is driven by various factors: it can avoid both the risk of international financial turmoil, the RMB set of foreign exchange, and the Chinese stock market and property market