5 thoughts on “The appreciation of RMB means how to change the foreign exchange rate”
Tasha
The appreciation of the renminbi means that the RMB exchange rate rises, and the foreign exchange exchange rate decreases (the RMB exchange rate rises). The appreciation of RMB means that the RMB is valuable, and you can exchange more foreign currency, which also means that you can buy more foreign products. Imported products and raw materials can spend less money, which is conducive to the "internationalization" of the RMB, which will also lead to rising asset prices. The appreciation will be impacted, because the price of RMB prices into foreign currencies has increased compared to them. The export price rises, and natural orders will decrease. Exporting companies are impacted or even closed, and workers will unemployment. The appreciation of the renminbi has led to depreciation and shrinking foreign exchange assets in my country. This information The factors affecting the changes in RMB exchange rate: 1, international revenue and expenditure. International revenue balance is the main factor that determines the exchange rate trend. International revenue and expenditure is the sum of various revenue and expenditures in a country's foreign economic activities. Generally speaking, international revenue and expenditure deficit indicates that foreign exchange supply is insufficient. Under the floating exchange rate system, the market supply and demand relationship determines the change of exchange rates. The international revenue and expenditure deficit will lead to depreciation of the local currency and the appreciation of foreign currency, that is, the rising exchange rate. Instead, the international income and expenditure surplus leads to a decline in exchange rates. It should be pointed out that in general, the changes in international revenue and expenditure determine the medium and long -term trend of the exchange rate. 2, national income. If the amount of currency supply remains unchanged, the additional demand for the currency will increase the value of the currency and lead to a depreciation of foreign exchange. Of course, the exchange rate caused by changes in national income is depreciating or rising, depending on the reasons for changes in national income. If the supply of goods is increased by increasing the supply of goods, the purchasing power of the country's currency will be strengthened for a long time and the exchange rate will decline. If the expansion of government expenditure or overall demand to increase national income, then the expansion of imports will inevitably meet excess demand under the condition of unchanging supply, which will increase the demand for foreign exchange and increase the foreign exchange exchange rate. 3, inflation level. The inflation rate is the basis of the exchange rate change. If a country issues too much currency, the amount of currency circulating in the process of commodity circulation exceeds the actual needs, which will cause inflation. Inflation reduces the purchasing power of a country's currency in the country and depreciate it relative to the domestic market. In other conditions, the depreciation of the currency to the domestic market will inevitably lead to external depreciation. Because the exchange rate is a comparison of the currency between the two countries and the country with a large amount of currency issuance, the value represented by its unit currency is lower. Therefore, when converting the country's currency into a foreign currency, it must pay more currencies than the country's currency. Reference materials Source: Baidu Encyclopedia -exchange rate change
After 2014, the RMB ended the unilateral appreciation trend. After the "811 exchange reform", the fluctuation rate of the exchange rate was significantly enhanced. It can be seen that since 2014, the trend of RMB exchange rates and interest rate changes is the same as the whole. The reason behind it is the fundamental changes, and the interest rates and exchange rates are reflected in the domestic and abroad. The since May, with the improvement of the fundamentals and the tightening of monetary policy, interest rates have continued to rise, and at the same time, the exchange rate has also entered a continuous appreciation channel at the end of May. This is the big background of the RMB appreciation. From this perspective, exchange rates and interest rates are actually two sides of the fundamental improvement. The direct correlation with the export is the valid exchange rate. Although the RMB appreciated sharply against the US dollar, the euro (1.2076, 0.0013, 0.11%) depreciated, and the appreciation of the yen was relatively small. Therefore, from the perspective of effective exchange rates, the appreciation of the renminbi is not large. Since May, the RMB appreciation of the US dollar has appreciated 3.77%, while the appreciation of nominal valid exchange rates and actual effective exchange rates is only 0.62%and 0.92%. In historical data, the effective exchange rate of the renminbi is more correlated with exports, and the export is about 6 months. The impact of appreciation on exports may not begin to appear until the end of the year. (1) Before 2014, the RMB unilateral appreciation, the relationship between the exchange rate and interest rate was weaker . As mentioned earlier, the exchange rate and interest rate correlation were not high before 2014. Prior to 2014, my country's international revenue and expenditure showed a dual surplus pattern. Except for individual points, the RMB faced continuous unilateral appreciation expectations. Therefore, regardless of domestic fundamentals, the exchange rate was always appreciated. In this period There is no obvious correlation. (2) After the "811" exchange reform, the unilateral depreciation expectation is expected to strengthen August 11, 2015, the People's Bank of China optimized the middle price quotation mechanism, referring to the daily closing price, supply and demand, and international major currency exchange rates Change, the RMB exchange rate floating elasticity increased significantly. On August 11, the RMB depreciated by 1.86%at one time, and then continued to depreciate. In the case of increasing downward pressure on the domestic economy and the outbreak of the second round of stock disaster, the central bank resurrected interest rates and reduced interest rates on August 25, until the end of the year showed a pattern of exchange rate degradation and interest rates. Apinerous depreciation expectations and the sharp decline in foreign exchange reserves, the central bank has also begun to intervene in exchange rates. On August 31st, the foreign exchange risk reserve was levied on the long -term foreign exchange sales business; the three RMB exchange rate indexes were released in December 2015, and the RMB exchange rate index was repeatedly emphasized. "Intermediate price = last day closing price basket currency exchange rate", stabilize market expectations. It at this time the central bank's focus on the exchange rate was stable, and the monetary policy was once constrained. For example, the enforcement report of the monetary policy in the fourth quarter of 2015 mentioned that "the significance of the reduction signal is strong, it may strengthen the expectations of the policy relaxation. Under certain circumstances, these may lead to increased pressure on the depreciation of the local currency and capital outflows. Increased, foreign exchange reserves decreased. " The RMB exchange rate at the beginning of 2016 deviated from the US dollar index. Fixed, release the steady growth signal. The exchange rate in the first half of 2016 was basically stable, and the interest rate was upward under the concerns of "cyclical restoration". On June 24, the British referendum passed, and the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar exceeded 6.60. Under the influence of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, the British hard Brexit statement, and Trump's election, the RMB exchange rate continued to break through the important mark. The central bank issued a stable forecast after the British referendum. At the same time, the outsourced capital driving interest rates continued to decline until the end of October, and the bull market ended as the "debt disaster" came. This interest rates and exchange rates are often driven by common factors, which reflect the common role of fundamentals, monetary policies, and external environments. The market has begun to pay attention to internal and external balance. The exchange rate is still more discussed in the interest rate. Although the monetary policy is also concerned about the periphery, the overall attitude is still maintained to obey the demands of stable economic growth. Double drop. (3) From the end of 2016 to the beginning of 2018: exchange rate rising, interest rate rising The global synchronization recovery in 2016, weakened the US dollar index, wide range of China and the United States, improved international revenue and expenditure, and the central bank Introduce the counter -cyclical factors to guide the market expectations, and the RMB will appreciate more than one year from the end of 2016 to the beginning of 2018. As the fundamentals are stabilized, the supervision starts a round of deleveraging, and the bond interest rate continues to rise from the end of 2016 until the beginning of 2018 fell again. The interest rate exchange rate at this stage is actually a reflection of economic recovery and currency tightening. Interest rates are on the exchange rate first, but the exchange rate mainly follows the US dollar index and Sino -US interest spreads. At that time, the central bank also followed the United States to maintain a higher spread of interest rate hikes. (4) Since 2018: The US dollar index and trade friction Since 2018, the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates has changed. The impact on the exchange rate has weakened. It can be seen that since 2018, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has followed the US dollar index as a whole, but it often occurs over -adjusting or even departure. In April-September 2018, the depreciation of the renminbi significantly exceeded the US dollar index change. Behind the Sino-US trade dispute rapidly, when the end of 2018 to April 2019, when the Sino-US peace talks and trade frictions eased, the RMB against the US dollar was against the US dollar against the US dollar. The exchange rate has appreciated rapidly, which once rose to 6.70; in May and August 2019, China -US economic and trade relations were tense again, and the RMB depreciated twice. At the end of 2019 The exchange rate appreciation at the same time. If bond interest rates, the impact of strict financial supervision in the early period since 2018 has spread to the real economy. At the same time, the Sino -US trade war broke out, and the overall monetary policy was loose under the stability of growth. Immigration, the pork inflation and inventory cycle rebounded in the fourth quarter to suppress the debt market. After the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the monetary policy was extra loose. Since May, the economic recovery and the return of monetary policy have returned to normal. The interest rate trend basically follows the fundamentals and monetary policy changes during this period. Generally speaking, the exchange rate and interest rates reflect the process from weak to recovery and monetary policy from loose to tightening. The two have not showed a significant leading lag relationship. Of course, in terms of the specific rhythm, we can still see the restriction of the exchange rate on interest rates: For example, the RMB depreciated sharply around August 2018, the central bank issued a series of macro -prudential measures. At the same time Interest rates have briefly returned, and interest rate exchange rates have departed, but the central bank has ended in October to release a steady growth signal; in August 2019, the bond market has been shocking. , Pig inflation and other factors drive together. I due to the exchange rate of the US dollar index and Sino -US relations, the impact of Sino -US interest spread on the exchange rate has weakened.
1. RMB appreciation means that the RMB is valuable. You can exchange more foreign currencies, which also means that you can buy more foreign products. Imported products and raw materials can spend less money. 2. The appreciation of the renminbi is conducive to the "internationalization" of the people, because the renminbi is "hard currency" 3. The appreciation of the renminbi will attract international hot money over domestic investment in RMB business. It will also lead to rising asset prices. 4. The appreciation will be impacted, because the price of the RMB price converted into a foreign currency is higher than that of the foreign currency. The export price rises, and natural orders will decrease. Exporting companies have been impacted and even closed down. 5. The appreciation of the renminbi has led to the depreciation of foreign exchange assets in my country. shrink.
The appreciation of people's name coins is relative to other currencies. The rising exchange rate of human names is generally relative to the US dollar, so the appreciation of the renminbi means that the RMB has risen relative to the US dollar exchange rate.
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The appreciation of the renminbi means that the RMB exchange rate rises, and the foreign exchange exchange rate decreases (the RMB exchange rate rises).
The appreciation of RMB means that the RMB is valuable, and you can exchange more foreign currency, which also means that you can buy more foreign products. Imported products and raw materials can spend less money, which is conducive to the "internationalization" of the RMB, which will also lead to rising asset prices.
The appreciation will be impacted, because the price of RMB prices into foreign currencies has increased compared to them. The export price rises, and natural orders will decrease. Exporting companies are impacted or even closed, and workers will unemployment. The appreciation of the renminbi has led to depreciation and shrinking foreign exchange assets in my country.
This information
The factors affecting the changes in RMB exchange rate:
1, international revenue and expenditure. International revenue balance is the main factor that determines the exchange rate trend. International revenue and expenditure is the sum of various revenue and expenditures in a country's foreign economic activities. Generally speaking, international revenue and expenditure deficit indicates that foreign exchange supply is insufficient. Under the floating exchange rate system, the market supply and demand relationship determines the change of exchange rates. The international revenue and expenditure deficit will lead to depreciation of the local currency and the appreciation of foreign currency, that is, the rising exchange rate. Instead, the international income and expenditure surplus leads to a decline in exchange rates. It should be pointed out that in general, the changes in international revenue and expenditure determine the medium and long -term trend of the exchange rate.
2, national income. If the amount of currency supply remains unchanged, the additional demand for the currency will increase the value of the currency and lead to a depreciation of foreign exchange. Of course, the exchange rate caused by changes in national income is depreciating or rising, depending on the reasons for changes in national income. If the supply of goods is increased by increasing the supply of goods, the purchasing power of the country's currency will be strengthened for a long time and the exchange rate will decline.
If the expansion of government expenditure or overall demand to increase national income, then the expansion of imports will inevitably meet excess demand under the condition of unchanging supply, which will increase the demand for foreign exchange and increase the foreign exchange exchange rate.
3, inflation level. The inflation rate is the basis of the exchange rate change. If a country issues too much currency, the amount of currency circulating in the process of commodity circulation exceeds the actual needs, which will cause inflation. Inflation reduces the purchasing power of a country's currency in the country and depreciate it relative to the domestic market.
In other conditions, the depreciation of the currency to the domestic market will inevitably lead to external depreciation. Because the exchange rate is a comparison of the currency between the two countries and the country with a large amount of currency issuance, the value represented by its unit currency is lower. Therefore, when converting the country's currency into a foreign currency, it must pay more currencies than the country's currency.
Reference materials Source: Baidu Encyclopedia -exchange rate change
After 2014, the RMB ended the unilateral appreciation trend. After the "811 exchange reform", the fluctuation rate of the exchange rate was significantly enhanced. It can be seen that since 2014, the trend of RMB exchange rates and interest rate changes is the same as the whole. The reason behind it is the fundamental changes, and the interest rates and exchange rates are reflected in the domestic and abroad.
The since May, with the improvement of the fundamentals and the tightening of monetary policy, interest rates have continued to rise, and at the same time, the exchange rate has also entered a continuous appreciation channel at the end of May. This is the big background of the RMB appreciation. From this perspective, exchange rates and interest rates are actually two sides of the fundamental improvement.
The direct correlation with the export is the valid exchange rate. Although the RMB appreciated sharply against the US dollar, the euro (1.2076, 0.0013, 0.11%) depreciated, and the appreciation of the yen was relatively small. Therefore, from the perspective of effective exchange rates, the appreciation of the renminbi is not large. Since May, the RMB appreciation of the US dollar has appreciated 3.77%, while the appreciation of nominal valid exchange rates and actual effective exchange rates is only 0.62%and 0.92%.
In historical data, the effective exchange rate of the renminbi is more correlated with exports, and the export is about 6 months. The impact of appreciation on exports may not begin to appear until the end of the year.
(1) Before 2014, the RMB unilateral appreciation, the relationship between the exchange rate and interest rate was weaker
. As mentioned earlier, the exchange rate and interest rate correlation were not high before 2014. Prior to 2014, my country's international revenue and expenditure showed a dual surplus pattern. Except for individual points, the RMB faced continuous unilateral appreciation expectations. Therefore, regardless of domestic fundamentals, the exchange rate was always appreciated. In this period There is no obvious correlation.
(2) After the "811" exchange reform, the unilateral depreciation expectation is expected to strengthen
August 11, 2015, the People's Bank of China optimized the middle price quotation mechanism, referring to the daily closing price, supply and demand, and international major currency exchange rates Change, the RMB exchange rate floating elasticity increased significantly. On August 11, the RMB depreciated by 1.86%at one time, and then continued to depreciate.
In the case of increasing downward pressure on the domestic economy and the outbreak of the second round of stock disaster, the central bank resurrected interest rates and reduced interest rates on August 25, until the end of the year showed a pattern of exchange rate degradation and interest rates.
Apinerous depreciation expectations and the sharp decline in foreign exchange reserves, the central bank has also begun to intervene in exchange rates. On August 31st, the foreign exchange risk reserve was levied on the long -term foreign exchange sales business; the three RMB exchange rate indexes were released in December 2015, and the RMB exchange rate index was repeatedly emphasized. "Intermediate price = last day closing price basket currency exchange rate", stabilize market expectations.
It at this time the central bank's focus on the exchange rate was stable, and the monetary policy was once constrained. For example, the enforcement report of the monetary policy in the fourth quarter of 2015 mentioned that "the significance of the reduction signal is strong, it may strengthen the expectations of the policy relaxation. Under certain circumstances, these may lead to increased pressure on the depreciation of the local currency and capital outflows. Increased, foreign exchange reserves decreased. "
The RMB exchange rate at the beginning of 2016 deviated from the US dollar index. Fixed, release the steady growth signal.
The exchange rate in the first half of 2016 was basically stable, and the interest rate was upward under the concerns of "cyclical restoration". On June 24, the British referendum passed, and the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar exceeded 6.60. Under the influence of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, the British hard Brexit statement, and Trump's election, the RMB exchange rate continued to break through the important mark.
The central bank issued a stable forecast after the British referendum. At the same time, the outsourced capital driving interest rates continued to decline until the end of October, and the bull market ended as the "debt disaster" came.
This interest rates and exchange rates are often driven by common factors, which reflect the common role of fundamentals, monetary policies, and external environments. The market has begun to pay attention to internal and external balance. The exchange rate is still more discussed in the interest rate. Although the monetary policy is also concerned about the periphery, the overall attitude is still maintained to obey the demands of stable economic growth. Double drop.
(3) From the end of 2016 to the beginning of 2018: exchange rate rising, interest rate rising
The global synchronization recovery in 2016, weakened the US dollar index, wide range of China and the United States, improved international revenue and expenditure, and the central bank Introduce the counter -cyclical factors to guide the market expectations, and the RMB will appreciate more than one year from the end of 2016 to the beginning of 2018.
As the fundamentals are stabilized, the supervision starts a round of deleveraging, and the bond interest rate continues to rise from the end of 2016 until the beginning of 2018 fell again.
The interest rate exchange rate at this stage is actually a reflection of economic recovery and currency tightening. Interest rates are on the exchange rate first, but the exchange rate mainly follows the US dollar index and Sino -US interest spreads. At that time, the central bank also followed the United States to maintain a higher spread of interest rate hikes.
(4) Since 2018: The US dollar index and trade friction
Since 2018, the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates has changed. The impact on the exchange rate has weakened.
It can be seen that since 2018, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has followed the US dollar index as a whole, but it often occurs over -adjusting or even departure.
In April-September 2018, the depreciation of the renminbi significantly exceeded the US dollar index change. Behind the Sino-US trade dispute rapidly, when the end of 2018 to April 2019, when the Sino-US peace talks and trade frictions eased, the RMB against the US dollar was against the US dollar against the US dollar. The exchange rate has appreciated rapidly, which once rose to 6.70; in May and August 2019, China -US economic and trade relations were tense again, and the RMB depreciated twice. At the end of 2019 The exchange rate appreciation at the same time.
If bond interest rates, the impact of strict financial supervision in the early period since 2018 has spread to the real economy. At the same time, the Sino -US trade war broke out, and the overall monetary policy was loose under the stability of growth. Immigration, the pork inflation and inventory cycle rebounded in the fourth quarter to suppress the debt market. After the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the monetary policy was extra loose. Since May, the economic recovery and the return of monetary policy have returned to normal. The interest rate trend basically follows the fundamentals and monetary policy changes during this period.
Generally speaking, the exchange rate and interest rates reflect the process from weak to recovery and monetary policy from loose to tightening. The two have not showed a significant leading lag relationship. Of course, in terms of the specific rhythm, we can still see the restriction of the exchange rate on interest rates:
For example, the RMB depreciated sharply around August 2018, the central bank issued a series of macro -prudential measures. At the same time Interest rates have briefly returned, and interest rate exchange rates have departed, but the central bank has ended in October to release a steady growth signal;
in August 2019, the bond market has been shocking. , Pig inflation and other factors drive together.
I due to the exchange rate of the US dollar index and Sino -US relations, the impact of Sino -US interest spread on the exchange rate has weakened.
1. RMB appreciation means that the RMB is valuable. You can exchange more foreign currencies, which also means that you can buy more foreign products. Imported products and raw materials can spend less money.
2. The appreciation of the renminbi is conducive to the "internationalization" of the people, because the renminbi is "hard currency"
3. The appreciation of the renminbi will attract international hot money over domestic investment in RMB business. It will also lead to rising asset prices.
4. The appreciation will be impacted, because the price of the RMB price converted into a foreign currency is higher than that of the foreign currency. The export price rises, and natural orders will decrease. Exporting companies have been impacted and even closed down.
5. The appreciation of the renminbi has led to the depreciation of foreign exchange assets in my country. shrink.
The appreciation of people's name coins is relative to other currencies. The rising exchange rate of human names is generally relative to the US dollar, so the appreciation of the renminbi means that the RMB has risen relative to the US dollar exchange rate.
00:00 / 01: 4670% shortcut keys to describe space: Play / pause ESC: Exit full screen ↑: increase volume 10% ↓: decreases by 10% →: Single fast forward 5 seconds studio Here you can drag no longer appear in the player settings to reopen the small window shortcut key description