5 thoughts on “What are the characteristics of the bull market? Is the bull market really coming?”

  1. At the end of June, the market was still discussing whether the 3,000 points had been welded; from July, the Shanghai Composite Index exceeded 3150 with a shortage of thunderous ears. Non -silver finance and real estate sector danced. The daily limit.

    This that seemed to have known each other made the market smell the taste of the initial bull market.

    The bull market suddenly surprised and surprised the investors in the empty or light positions, but I couldn't help but ask at the same time: Is the bull market really coming?

    The representation of the bull market last week (June 29-July 3), the Shanghai Composite Index rose 5.81%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index rose 5.25%, the GEM index rose 3.36%, the small and medium-sized board fingers finger finger The rise of 5.37%, all the index rose, and many indicators reached a new high, which seemed to be the atmosphere of the early bull market.

    (1) The broker is the pioneer of the bull market

    Te financial and real estate leaders rose, and the significant increase in weight stocks drive the key to the Shanghai Composite Index to quickly break through 3000 points. The pressure level and set a new high of 14 months. The brokerage sector has risen sharply, and the leading Everbright Securities in this round has been closer to the double since June 19. From the perspective of previous bull markets (see Figure 1), securities firms generally start the overall market of the market, so it is often regarded by the market as the advanced indicator of the bull market.

    (2) The price is the support of the price

    last week, the total turnover of the two cities was rapidly enlarged (see Figure 2), and it exceeded the 1 trillion mark again. On the 3rd, it reached 1.17 trillion, a new high in the past 4 months. From a technical perspective, the price breakthrough is likely to be a fake breakthrough without the coordination of the transaction volume; from the perspective of the past bull market, the start of the bull market is accompanied by the rapid amplification of the transaction volume, so it can be said that the transaction volume amplifies It is a necessary prerequisite for a bull market, but not sufficient conditions.

    . In addition, the balance of Liang Rong has gradually risen (see Figure 3), close to 1.2 trillion, a new high since the end of 2015. Specifically, the amount of daily margin marching is basically stable, below 4 billion; while the financing purchase amount has almost doubled the previous week, and the single -day financing buy nearly 120 billion yuan. The increase in leverage also increases the power of buyer.

    (3) When the funding for funding is high, when the rapid gathering of domestic funds, the north -directional funds are not outdone (see Figure 4), and the net purchase of more than 10 billion in two consecutive days; the current cumulative net purchase amount It has exceeded 1.14 trillion yuan, a record high; on July 2nd, the total transaction value of the northbound capital was 149.17 billion yuan, accounting for 10%of the total turnover of A shares, a record high. Moreover, Northbound Funds, as an indicator of the strength and emotions of A shares as a foreign capital, has significant guiding significance for the A -share market.

    So comprehensive, from the disk, technical, capital and emotional sides, you can feel the strong atmosphere of the bull market. So is the bull market really coming?

    The obstacles of the full bull market Although the A -share market rose and emotional in the last week, the arrival of the full bull market is still early. The restless market of A shares is not uncommon, and the leadership of securities firms does not necessarily drive the start of the full bull market, and the current launch of the full bull market still has greater risks.

    (1) Although the epidemic is improved, it has not reached the point of optimism

    The overseas epidemic is still not fully controlled and the possibility of second explosion; US stocks are liquidity liquidity; The influence of flooding continues to rise. Before the valuation bubble exceeds the epidemic, if the epidemic is expected to develop, the risk appetite of the US stock market may sink quickly, which will cause the global capital flow and the heating of global risk aversion, and then an impact on A shares will have an impact on A shares. Essence

    (2) Be alert to the impact of economic recovery expectations for the economic impact on the economy in the first quarter. Although the epidemic is small, with the continuous advancement of the resumption of production, the foundation of corporate profit in the first quarter The significant recovery has become a market consensus; the macroeconomic restoration continues to exceed expectations, but with the advent of the rainy season in the south, the cyclical off -season will lead to the slowdown of fundamental repair. Only when the actual performance continues to exceed expectations will it further stimulate valuations, and if the economic restoration slows down, the expected poor will hit the market's optimistic emotions.

    (3) Low -margin improving space is not large. The current market is rising rapidly, which greatly depends on the promotion of capital. The current monetary policy and the central bank's control of the capital can be seen. The will of the regulatory layer. When liquidity is flooding, financial arbitrage is very easy to appear, and when the real economy urgently needs cash flow, structurally loose and direct entities are the main means. Therefore, whether it is overheating in the economic recovery or the rise of the stock market too fast, it may cause regulatory to tighten liquidity. In July, the science and technology board was listed for one year. The scale of lifting the ban on July 22 reached 173.5 billion yuan, which would have an impact on the market.

    (4) The black swan incident has not been eliminated

    in the first half of this year, the increase of the comprehensive index has launched two offensives with the help of securities, but both are black The influence of the swan incident is the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, and one is the outbreak of the overseas liquidity crisis. At present, the uncertainty of the macro fundamentals still exists, so the risk of volatility has not disappeared, and the A -share market may be twisted.

    At the current point, optimistic that the full bull market has started a bit too optimistic. Investment cannot blindly follow the hotspot and emotions of the market, but it needs logical deduction and logical consistency.

    Is the style conversion? Since the outbreak of the full bull market is still limited by many factors, is there a possibility of style rotation or steering in this raid of this market?

    It review last week, although the index has a good performance, from the perspective of the industry (see Figure 5), the differentiation is more obvious. Compared with the rise and fall of various industries in the first half of the year and the previous week, it can be found that a fundamental change has undergone a leading industry: last week's leading sheep, non -silver, banks and real estate, in the first half of the year, and the first half of the year led the rise in the first half of the year. Medicine, electronics, and computers were depressed last week.

    It's perspective of funds (see Figure 6), in the first half of the year, the financial and real estate, which was left out of market funds in the first half of the year, was obviously favored by funds last week, while the main funds of pharmaceuticals, electronics and computers flowed out on a large scale. From the perspective of style, the focus of market attention shifts from the scientific and technological growth industry in the first half of the year to the weight of low valuation.

    From the perspective of policy, there is also a trace of this round of large financial rise. The reform of the GEM registration system, the selection of the New Third Board is launched, and the large -scale listing of new shares is good for the brokerage business; the Securities and Futures Commission plans to issue a bank license to commercial banks, which is good for bank stocks. With the continuous opening of the financial market, related support policies are expected to be introduced one after another.

    In historically, in the bull market stage, the differentiation between the industry is not large, and the characteristics of rotation are significant; and the differentiation in the shock market is obvious. Since the rise of this round, the degree of differentiation of the industry has significantly surpassed the highest level of history. In the future, industry rotation is likely to occur, and the degree of differentiation will gradually shrink.

    In summary, the current style does have changed significantly, and the volume of low valuation stocks has risen, while the growth stocks of the original high valuation are tepid. The scissors since the month are expected to shrink (see Figure 7).

    Igone in the first half of the year, affected by the impact of the epidemic, structural demand greatly increased, and individual stocks such as pharmaceuticals, creatures, compulsory consumption and other sectors performed well. , Outstanding performance of the meta -industry such as big data. After the outbreak of the epidemic, the domestic economy was basically stagnant, but the intensity of the adverse period adjustment policy increased the demand for new and old infrastructure related areas.

    At present, the counter -cycle adjustment is stable and sustainable in scale and time, and the profit expectations are more clear. In the long run, the structure of the A -share market has changed significantly: the proportion of the total market value represented by medicine, technology, and consumption has increased year by year, and the proportion of traditional economic sectors such as petrochemical, steel, coal, and banks such as petrochemical industry, Therefore, in the context of my country's economic structural transformation, industrial structure adjustment, and new economic dynamic energy transformation, it has a higher certainty of domestic replacement and consumption upgrade.

    The impression of the bull market needs to be used in this rising market, and it can no longer simply take the historic bull market as a reference for the future. In the round of bull markets in 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 513.5%in 28 months, but fell 72.8%in the following 12 months; the round of bull markets in 2014, the Shanghai Composite Index was in 10 months It rose 157%, but fell 48.9%in the following 7 months, which caused A shares to fall into the speculative situation of the short -bears and long bear. It also caused great blow to investors. The maturity of the capital market.

    The on the US stock market (see Figure 8), although it has also ruptured by the foam of the Great Depression, Internet Bubbles, and subprime mortgage crisis, but in the long run, the overall bull market structure has not changed. Since 2000, the average historical volatility of the S

  2. In the stock market, the continuous rise in stocks has become a bull market, and the continuous decline of stocks is called a bear market.

    The bull market is also called a long market, which means that the market is bullish and durates for a long time.

    The bear market usually refers to the market that is generally diluted and stumbled. It is also known as the short market.

    The concept of the cowboy market has been roughly aware of it. Many people may be thinking, now in a bear market or a bull market?

    This links to the next link, and immediately tell you the answer: Exclusive investment calendar in the Shanghai and Shenzhen cities, master the latest first -hand information

    . How can you do it to distinguish between a bear market or a bull market?

    It to infer whether the market market is a bear market or a bull market. It can be seen from these two angles. In fact, it is generally divided into the basics and technical surfaces.

    First of all, we can preliminarily judge how the market is in the fundamentals. The fundamental performance is the operating trend of the macroeconomic and the operation of listed companies. Usually, according to industry research reports, we can draw conclusions. : [Stock Market Barometer] First -hand information reporting of the financial market

    Secondly, from the perspective of technology, we cannot ignore some reference values, and we can use indicators such as transition rates, volume and price relationships, etc. , Trend form, etc., to observe and judge the market.

    It, if it is currently a bull market, buying far more than selling people, then the rise of the K -line chart of many stocks is more obvious. Conversely, if it is currently a bear market and the person who buys stocks is insufficient to sell stocks, then the fall of the K -line chart of many stocks is more obvious.

    . How to judge the turning point of the bulls and bears?

    If the bull market is about to end, it is very likely to buy it at the height of the stock, which will be overwhelmed. On the contrary, when the bear market is about to end Earn the golden bowl full.

    So, as long as we can figure out the turning point of the bear cattle, we can buy it when the price is low. When the price is high, we can use the difference to make a sum! There are many ways to infer the turning point of the beef bear. It is recommended to use the following turning point to capture the artifact, and obtain the timing of sale: [AI auxiliary decision-making] Capture of the sale and sale

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  3. What are the characteristics of the bull market? Is the bull market really coming?
    1. Don't worry about buying stocks. Don't just want to buy the lowest price. This is unrealistic. It is also good for you to buy a high price at a high price, so you can miss it if you buy stocks. Do not make mistakes. You ca n’t blindly buy and sell stocks. It is best to buy stocks familiar with the stock market.

    2. If you are not familiar with, you can simulate the sale and be familiar with the equity. It is best to follow the operation method for one or two days. You can master the buying point.

    3, attach importance to the necessary technical analysis, pay attention to the changes in the volume and the surface language of the disk (the situation of the market for sale).

    4. Try to choose hotspots and appropriate buying points, so that the stock price can rise from the cost area after buying the same day.

    three people and three people: buy a lot, popularity, and stock prices rise, otherwise fall. What you need at this time is the personal ability of the individual, can you discover the hot spots in time. This is the key to short -term success or failure. The short -term operation in the stock market is cruel, and the mentality must be stable. It is best to buy the stock price rising from the cost after buying correctly. : Winning is stopping, and it will not be repeated here.

    The techniques of four -selling stocks: stocks cannot be rising all the time, and there will be adjustments to a certain extent. The short -term operations must be sold in time. Generally speaking It's right. Don't want to sell the highest price, but for the largest benefit, there is still a skill in stock selling. I will introduce my experience (not necessarily the best):

    1, has already been There is a large increase, and the stocks areas that are rapidly pulling to the daily limit board without blocking the daily limit can consider selling, especially those with long upper shadows.

    2, 60 minutes or daily lines that have a huge stagnation or stocks with long shadow lines. Generally, they do not continue to rush on the next day. It is easy to form a short -term top. Essence

    3, the 15 or 30 minutes of the time graph can be seen. , Very reference value.

    4. For the wrong stocks, it must be stopped in time. The higher the stop loss, the better. This is a process of accumulation of long -term actual combat drills. If you look wrong, you need to pay for it. There is nothing to wait.

  4. The characteristic of the bull market is that the stocks will rise up, and the index will continue to rise. The biggest feature is that the market value of the securities sector and the large financial sector will continue to rise. Judging from the current performance, it still belongs to the rotation market. There is no performance of the bull market

  5. There are three most obvious features of the bull market: 1. Securities stocks are comprehensively outbreak, 2. National policy support, 3. The broader market breaks through the annual line. And judging whether the bull market is really coming, to make an ideal analysis based on the specific characteristics of the market.

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